Trade Brawl Fails To Dent China’s Commodity Appetite In August
China’s commodity imports – such as coal, iron ore and oil – held up in August, despite the continuing trade brawl with the US.
Read MoreChina’s commodity imports – such as coal, iron ore and oil – held up in August, despite the continuing trade brawl with the US.
Read MoreForget GDP, jobs and other reports such as Donald Trump’s expanding trade war with China, this week is all about Apple.
Read MoreA brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.
Read MoreThere’s no doubting the Australian economy is going well at the moment – the June quarter national accounts confirmed the jump in growth reported in the March quarter and also suggest the Reserve Bank’s forecast for growth of “a bit above 3%” for 2018 and 2019 is on track.
Read MoreOnline business continues to advance rapidly and this is driving heightened expenditure as retailers adapt. Meanwhile, housing-related headwinds persist for the consumer sector.
Read MoreNo move in interest rates by the Reserve Bank for a 25th consecutive month and there won’t be one any time sooner.
Read MoreA mixed picture from economic data yesterday released ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision later today and tomorrow’s June quarter GDP figures.
Read MoreAnother solid monthly jobs report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics with significant gains in August in both the more accurate trend measure and on the more publicly used seasonally adjusted basis.
Read MorePlatinum’s Andrew Clifford discusses what the fears around escalating US-China trade tension, rising US interest rates, and the impact of China’s financial system reforms mean for our medium to long-term investment outlook.
Read MoreWhere does the US café chain Starbucks have the largest of its 28,200 company-owned and licensed outlets that are found in 76 countries? In Shanghai, China.
Read MoreThe local highlight will be a speech from RBA Governor Phillip Lowe at the Australia-China Relations Institute. While the focus will no doubt be on Australia’s export dependence on China and the benefits of trade to both countries, Lowe is also likely to discuss some of the recent economic news which shows entrenched low inflation and a softening outlook for the world economy.
Read MoreLabour market issues will dominate the economic news with the quarterly wages and monthly labour force data both out.
Read MoreTreasurer Scott Morrison will deliver the 2018-19 Budget on Tuesday night and from all accounts a range of upbeat economic forecasts will deliver a deluge of revenue that will fund income and company tax cuts and leave the budget on track for a small surplus in 2020-21. These issues, tax cuts, economic forecasts and the return to surplus, are likely to be the main aspects of the budget.
Read MoreThis week is all about the Reserve Bank.
Read MoreAll pumped up about inflation!
Read MoreThe ever-important labour force release will dominate local market news, especially when it come to the outlook for official interest rate settings.
Read MoreIt is a relatively quiet week for local data, with the main release the housing finance data for February. A flat result is expected.
Read MoreAfter the Easter weekend, there is the veritable blockbuster of economic news this week. The highlight, at least emotionally, will be the monthly meeting of the RBA, but no one seriously expects any change in the cash rate or the RBA’s rhetoric when the policy press release hits the wires.
Read MoreWith the health of the labour market front and centre of the debate over the economy and the outlook for official interest rates, next week’s job vacancy data will shed more light on the demand for labour. Since the low point in 2013, the number of job vacancies has been trending higher, albeit as a moderate pace. The market consensus is for another moderate rise in the number of job vacancies, even though the hard data on economic growth has been generally disappointing since the start of the year.
Read MoreTwo super-duper economic releases coming up this week – the official house price series together with the next round of labour force data.
Read MoreAll eyes will be on the US inflation data as it will help frame expectations for interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve. With a further 25 basis point rate hike all but fully priced in to the next Fed meeting on 21 March, the inflation data will help form views on how many interest rate hikes will be needed in 2018 to ensure the pace of economic growth is consistent with the target.
Read MoreThe National Accounts on Wednesday did not, and never do, break out how much of the GDP was due to China, but it’s a lot. What with resources exports, education and tourism as our three main exports, Australia rather depends on the autocracy to our north.
Read MoreIt is a blockbuster week ahead for economics. There will be data on new building approvals, monthly inflation, the balance of payments, retail trade, GDP and international trade. On top of that is the monthly meeting of the RBA Board which is next to no chance of adjusting official rates from the current level of 1.5 per cent.
Read MoreThe top tier economic data continues to roll out. This week the market mover will be the private new capital expenditure survey, business investment in other words. After years of sharp declines where investment as a share of GDP fell to a 25 year low, there was a bottoming out around the middle of 2017.
Read MoreThe news next week on wages will be huge. Not just for judgments about the purchasing power of consumers, but vitally from a more medium-term inflation outlook given that most firms’ wages bills are a driver of future selling prices.
Read MoreWith the labour market such a pivotal issue for markets and policy makers alike, the next monthly update will be delivered by the ABS on Thursday.
Read MoreIt is a busy week for economic data but the highlight is likely to be the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday.
Read MoreThe December quarter consumer price index is the proverbial blockbuster data release on Wednesday. With the market pricing in two interest rate hikes by the middle of 2019, the momentum on inflation will be key to determining if such expectations are valid.
Read MoreThe European Central Bank meets this coming Thursday and while no one expects any change in monetary policy settings, the sharp and increasingly broad based pick up in economic activity is likely to see at least some commentary cover this increasingly favourable news. Some in the market are looking for the ECB to discuss the timetable for starting to reverse the super-stimulatory stance of policy.
Read MoreMemo to RBA – be careful what you wish for, house prices are falling
Read MoreThe Federal government is set to release the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Monday which will provide up to date news on the budget and Treasury’s view on the health of the economy.
Read MoreWith economic growth ticking higher, the next instalment of “how’s the economy going” will be with the labour market data next Thursday.
Read MoreNext week is one of the big ones for the economy, with the two highlights being September quarter GDP and the meeting of the RBA Board.
Read MoreWith the RBA and Treasury effectively betting the house on a pick up in business investment, the Private Capital Expenditure survey will be vital to see whether the tentative signs of a turn in investment in the non-mining sector has continued in the September quarter and more importantly, continued in the business investment expectations for the next year.
Read MoreThe minutes of the most recent meeting of the US Federal Open Markets Committee are to be released next week. With the market pricing in a December interest rate hike in the US, insights from the interest rate setting Committee will be raked over for clues on the likely path of monetary policy over the more medium term.
Read MoreIt’s all about the labour market with the dual highlights being the Wage Price Index and the Labour Force.
Read MoreIt has been seven long years since the last increase in interest rates in Australia. Since November 2010, the RBA has either left interest rates on hold at its regularly monthly meetings, or has seen fit to cut them.
Read MoreOne of the biggest questions confronting policy makers and market watchers is the health of the consumer. This makes the retail trade data for September next week the key release and after two straight months of decline, most economists are looking for a moderate rebound. The extent of that rebound will be an important guide on household financial well-being.
Read MoreThe September quarter CPI will take centre stage and it is likely to be a strong result.
Read MoreFurther on the synchronised global upswing that is underway: it is the second one this decade where the spark for the rise in global growth came out of China rather than the United States.
Read More