Economics

China’s third-quarter GDP and key September economic data will be released later today (Friday) as the country’s share markets sell off sharply.

The unemployment rate fell to new six-year lows in September as the jobs boom continued its slowdown.

China’s once rapidly growing new car market has slowed sharply in the past few months and sales are now falling as the sluggishness in the world’s second-biggest economy undermines demand in the sector hard.

No sign of any impact on the Trump trade war or the slowing economy on the performance of China’s major imports in September.

China’s trade data for September was again better than many analysts and others had expected, with an especially strong export performance with the US.

According to the latest business survey from the National Australia Bank, economic activity and business conditions seemed to have stabilised, trimming what looked like a a month ago to be a slowdown that was coinciding with the downturn in the pace of job creation.

The September ANZ Job Ads series has confirmed the slowdown in new jobs growth that has emerged from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force data in recent months.

Australia’s trade surplus in the first eight months of 2018 is running more than 17% ahead of 2018 as higher prices for thermal coal, LNG and resilient iron ore prices combine with a weaker Aussie dollar to boost export income.

Despite all the angst and silly stuff that has been written about falling house prices and a property price crash, the largest area of investment (and approvals), owner-occupied housing remains solid, even if the strength is fading a little.

Steady as she goes from the Reserve Bank yesterday with yet another month of unchanged interest rates.

Another record will be set later today when the Reserve Bank holds interest rates at their current level for the 36th month in a row.

Job vacancies in Australia hit another all-time high in the August quarter as the jobs boom continues, thanks to the accelerating surge in private sector openings.

Unlike the US, but very much like the Australian economy, New Zealand’s economy is growing solidly, and yet doesn’t need any extra stimulation from a rate cut, but doesn’t need a slight hand on the tiller from a rate rise.

Growth rebounded strongly in the NZ economy in the year to June, hitting a two year high with yesterday’s second-quarter report showing a 1% rise from the three months to March when growth was 0.5%.

China’s last big data drop for the month of August had a couple of surprises – growth in investment fell to the lowest level ever, while surprisingly production of commodities used in investment such as steel and cement rose or only dipped by a small amount.

Australian business conditions index rebounded in August but the political volatility hit confidence levels, knocking them lower to where they are now below average, according to the latest business survey from the National Australia Bank.

While recession remains very unlikely, the combination of a slowing housing cycle, constraints on consumer spending and still subdued business investment will likely see growth slow going forward to around 2.5-3%.

Forget GDP, jobs and other reports such as Donald Trump’s expanding trade war with China, this week is all about Apple.

There’s no doubting the Australian economy is going well at the moment – the June quarter national accounts confirmed the jump in growth reported in the March quarter and also suggest the Reserve Bank’s forecast for growth of “a bit above 3%” for 2018 and 2019 is on track.

Online business continues to advance rapidly and this is driving heightened expenditure as retailers adapt. Meanwhile, housing-related headwinds persist for the consumer sector.

No move in interest rates by the Reserve Bank for a 25th consecutive month and there won’t be one any time sooner.

A mixed picture from economic data yesterday released ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision later today and tomorrow’s June quarter GDP figures.

Another solid monthly jobs report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics with significant gains in August in both the more accurate trend measure and on the more publicly used seasonally adjusted basis.