Australian recession Q&A – Why the worry? What’s the risk? And what would it mean for investors?
27 Jun 2023 – Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP, discusses the possible recession.
Read MoreInterest Rates
Inbound Soft Landing, According to the Fed
The Fed now thinks it has managed to guide the US economy onto the firm bit of the runway, instead of an overshoot into a recession.
Read MoreTo Pause or not to Pause, that is the Question
The sharp fall in US consumer inflation in May means that, barring a last minute brain fade, the Fed will sit on rates this morning.
Read MoreHighway to the Monetary Policy Danger Zone
Prospects of a nervy week for markets everywhere with the world’s three most-watch central banks – the ECB, BoJ and US Fed – discussing policy settings and interest rates.
Read MoreHow the Yen Drives Japan’s Monetary Policy
When it comes to Japan and the BoJ, investors who heed the road signs may be best positioned to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
Read MoreRBA Remains Resolute and Aggressive with Rates
The RBA lifted the cash rate to an 11-year high of 4.1% on Tuesday and warned further rises might be needed if inflation didn’t start falling.
Read MoreYet Another Rate Rise Now Looking More Likely
Odds are tightening that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates at its June meeting next Tuesday after a slew of healthy economic data.
Read MoreFinally Some Lightening in the RBNZ’s Tightening
At last, a change at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with the central bank slowing its chain of rate rises to just 0.25% at its May meeting yesterday.
Read MoreNo Direction Home for RBA from Jobs Data
No rate rise pressure on the RBA from either Wednesday’s Wage Price Index or Thursday’s April labour force figures – but no respite, either.
Read MoreFed Raises Again but Hints at Pause
Federal Reserve followed the script to a T – lifting its key interest rate by 0.25% to a 15-year high of 5% to 5.25% and then sent a hint that it may be about to pause.
Read MoreNobody Expected the RBA Requisition
The Reserve Bank’s surprise 0.25% rate rise on Tuesday flew in the face of the widespread belief that it would sit on rates for a second month in a row.
Read MoreBottom-Pickers Unite to Turn Oz Property Market
A rude wake-up call for the RBA, with gloomy forecasts of a big slump and problems for borrowers blown out of the water by a turnaround in house prices for April.
Read MoreRBA Rate Chatter Leaving Markets Perplexed
The RBA certainly seems to feel no compulsion to put the market’s mind at ease about interest rates, choosing instead to send conflicting messages that only add to the confusion.
Read MoreThe Trouble with Interest Rates
GAM Investments’ Julian Howard explores how, undeterred by the transatlantic banking crisis, policymakers’ focus on inflation and rates will hamper short-term market progress.
Read MoreEconomics Wrap: Overinflated and Overfed
It was jobs and wages last week for the US, this week it’s Consumer Price inflation and retail sales, with the minutes of the March meeting of the Fed thrown in as a ‘bonus’.
Read MoreNZRB Goes the Full Press with 50bp Rise
Signs of a slowing economy including a 0.7% contraction in 4Q22 didn’t stop the Reserve Bank of NZ from raising its official cash rate by another half a per cent to 5.25% on Wednesday.
Read MoreRBA Pauses Despite Niggling Inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia has become the first major central bank to pause its campaign of rate increases, leaving its cash rate at 3.6% even though inflation remains very high.
Read MoreRBA’s Next Move Has Markets Guessing
OPEC+’s surprise production cut will be noted by the RBA at its meeting today as a possible short-term boost to cost pressures and perhaps the harbinger of a medium-term slump in activity.
Read MoreRetail Weakness Rippling into Labour Market
The Reserve Bank’s rate rises might be taking their time to have a substantive impact on inflation and the labour market, but they are certainly making their mark on retail employment.
Read MoreCooling Inflation Takes Immediate Heat off RBA
The Reserve Bank will almost certainly pause its rate rises at its April monetary policy meeting next Tuesday after the monthly inflation indicator for February fell to an 8-month low.
Read MoreFed Prioritises Inflation Woes over Bank Woes
US investors liked, and then reversed their approval of, the 0.25% rate rise from the Federal Reserve and the reasoning that the health of the economy remains the primary concern.
Read MoreRBA Looks About Ready to Set and Forget for a While
According to the minutes of its March 7 meeting, the Reserve Bank is close to hitting the ‘P for pause’ button on its monetary policy lever after ten rate rises in the past year.
Read MoreShares Hit More Turbulence – Banks, Inflation, Rates and Recession Risk
Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP, discusses how US regional bank failures have joined inflation, interest rates and recession risk as concerns for markets.
Read MoreThe Delicate Art of Juggling Kittens and Chainsaws
Normally jobs data as strong as we got for February would be enough to send the RBA yanking the half a per cent lever for its cash rate – but these are anything but normal times.
Read MoreOnward and Upward for the Fed after CPI Data
February’s US CPI data coming in line with expectations means US interest rates will rise again next week – unless another bank or a big holder of bonds falls over in the meantime.
Read MoreDiary: The Organ Grinder’s Monkey
The immediate question facing markets is whether the collapse of SVB will impact the Fed’s monetary policy stance and override concerns from Friday’s job data and tomorrow’s CPI report.
Read MoreEight Reasons the RBA Should Now Pause
The RBA increased the cash rate by another 0.25%, but its commentary was far less hawkish – here are eight reasons AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver thinks the RBA should now pause.
Read MorePowell and the Fed Have the Bulls On Edge for Now
It will pay to keep a close eye on a couple of US statistics in particular over the next few days – tonight’s jobs data and and then next Tuesday’s CPI report, both for the February period.
Read MoreFed Zigs while RBA Zags in Inflation Battle
Two different economies at different stages of their battle with inflation – but there are some similarities between the US and Australia, as well as one glaring disparity.
Read MorePowell’s Words a Hot Knife through the Market’s Butter
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sent shivers through financial markets when he told the US Senate, on Tuesday that interest rates may have to rise by more than previously forecast.
Read MoreRBA Assures Us this Hike Won’t Be the Last
As expected the Reserve Bank raised its key cash rate for a 10th time by 0.25% to a forecast 3.6%, but again signalled that at least one more rate increase is on the cards.
Read MoreRBA Set to Keep Calm and Tighten On
The RBA is expected to lift the cash rate by another 0.25% today, even though there is clear evidence the economy is slowing and consumer spending and incomes are weakening.
Read MoreRBA Boss Right on the Money about Wages
RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s disbelief of a wage price spiral was yesterday borne out in the December quarter and 2022 Wage Price Index data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreLucky Number Eight for RBA with Labour Data
The local jobs market has seemingly cracked at last after eight rate rises from the RBA, with the January unemployment rate rising to 3.7% according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreThe RBA Hikes Rates by Another 0.25% – Are we there Yet?
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver discusses the RBA’s rate hike and explains why, with inflationary pressures easing globally & showing signs of doing so here as well, he believes the cash rate is near the top.
Read MoreRBA Goes Slow and Steady with the Rates
Normal service again from the RBA – an increase of 0.25% and a warning of more to come, leaving those pessimists expecting a higher increase to quietly rue their forecasts.
Read MoreRBA Rate Rise Risk Is Slightly to the Upside
Recent stronger-than-forecast economic data has led to an upturn in forecasts for a rate rise larger than 0.25% to emerge from the Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting today.
Read MoreRegular Programming Resumes for the Fed
‘Normal’ service from now on for the US Federal Reserve to get investors to understand that it will still take a while yet to wring cost pressures out of the American economy.
Read MoreUS Consumers Left to Do the Heavy Lifting
The first estimate for US 4th quarter economic growth raises a worrisome question: American consumers are keeping the economy growing, can they keep it up?
Read MoreInflation Still too Hot for Comfort
While the jump in the December quarter CPI naturally grabbed all the headlines, it’s the monthly inflation indicator that will keep the RBA tweaking its cash rate higher.
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